Caio Machado vs Nicollas Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-5-1Record3-0-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
78"Reach-
205 lbsWeight206 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1587
If they lose-12→ 1563
If they win+24→ 1599
If they lose-24→ 1551
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1571 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Caio MachadoNicollas Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caio Machado51%
Nicollas Santos 49%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Caio Machado a 51% favorite over Nicollas Santos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1575 vs 1575), separated by just 0 points.
Nicollas Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Caio Machado finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Nicollas Santos 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.