Caio Machado vs Rhadi Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-5-1Record3-0-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height5'9"
78"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1588
If they lose-12→ 1564
If they win+24→ 1598
If they lose-24→ 1550
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1572 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1512 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Caio MachadoRhadi Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caio Machado65%
Rhadi Ferguson 35%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Caio Machado a 65% favorite over Rhadi Ferguson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1576 vs 1574), separated by just 2 points.
Rhadi Ferguson enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Caio Machado finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Rhadi Ferguson 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.