Caio Machado vs Tom Lawlor
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-5-1Record11-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'0"
78"Reach74,0"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Franco Kickboxing and PankrationTeamThe Jungle MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1589
If they lose-12→ 1565
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1574 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1636 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Caio MachadoTom Lawlor
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caio Machado66%
Tom Lawlor 34%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Caio Machado a 66% favorite over Tom Lawlor in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tom Lawlor's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1577 vs 1583), separated by just 6 points.
Caio Machado finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Tom Lawlor 73%.
Caio Machado carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.