Combat Edge Intelligence

Caio Magalhaes vs Karlos Vemola

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Karlos Vemola
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Karlos Vemola

“The Terminator”

37-8-0Light HeavyweightOKMMA

1737Good

Tale of the tape

10-7-0Record37-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
73.00ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Teixeira MMA & FitnessTeamLondon Shootfighters

What's at stake

Karlos Vemola is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Caio Magalhaes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Caio MagalhaesNow 1545
If they win+36→ 1581
If they lose-12→ 1533
Karlos VemolaNow 1737
If they win+6→ 1743
If they lose-18→ 1719

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1649 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1562 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
1.67
40%
Strike accuracy
44%
2.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.13
56%
Strike defense
38%
1.05
Takedown avg.
1.93
15%
Takedown accuracy
26%
58%
Takedown defense
31%
1.58
Submission avg.
1.66

Trajectory

Caio MagalhaesKarlos Vemola
1600170020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
9 (24%)
4 (40%)
Submission
20 (54%)
3 (30%)
Decision
8 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Karlos Vemola75%
Caio Magalhaes 25%Elo baseline: 75%

The Combat Edge model makes Karlos Vemola a 75% favorite over Caio Magalhaes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).

Karlos Vemola holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1737 to 1545, a 192-point edge.

Caio Magalhaes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Caio Magalhaes finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Karlos Vemola 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.