Caio Magalhaes vs Karlos Vemola
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-7-0Record37-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
73.00ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Teixeira MMA & Fitness· 1650 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamLondon Shootfighters
What's at stake
Karlos Vemola is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Caio Magalhaes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1587
If they lose-8→ 1555
If they win+6→ 1762
If they lose-18→ 1738
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1636 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Caio MagalhaesKarlos Vemola
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Karlos Vemola60%
Caio Magalhaes 40%Elo baseline: 75%
The Combat Edge model makes Karlos Vemola a 60% favorite over Caio Magalhaes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (75%).
Karlos Vemola holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1756 to 1563, a 193-point edge.
Caio Magalhaes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Caio Magalhaes finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Karlos Vemola 78%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.