Combat Edge Intelligence

Caio Magalhaes vs Luke Zachrich

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-7-0Record14-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
73.00ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Teixeira MMA & FitnessTeamRonin Training Center

What's at stake

Luke Zachrich is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Caio Magalhaes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Caio MagalhaesNow 1545
If they win+31→ 1576
If they lose-17→ 1528
Luke ZachrichNow 1643
If they win+12→ 1655
If they lose-20→ 1623

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1649 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
4.56
40%
Strike accuracy
33%
2.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.46
56%
Strike defense
63%
1.05
Takedown avg.
0.74
15%
Takedown accuracy
33%
58%
Takedown defense
80%
1.58
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Caio MagalhaesLuke Zachrich
1550160016502013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
4 (40%)
Submission
6 (43%)
3 (30%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Luke Zachrich64%
Caio Magalhaes 36%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Luke Zachrich a 64% favorite over Caio Magalhaes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Luke Zachrich holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1643 to 1545, a 98-point edge.

Caio Magalhaes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Caio Magalhaes finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Luke Zachrich 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.