Combat Edge Intelligence

Caio Magalhaes vs Robert Pukač

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

10-7-0Record21-14-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height5'11"
73.00Reach-
185 lbsWeight175 lbs
Teixeira MMA & Fitness· 1664 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamOctagon Fighting Academy· 1591 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Caio MagalhaesNow 1545
If they win+24→ 1569
If they lose-24→ 1521
Robert PukačNow 1544
If they win+16→ 1560
If they lose-16→ 1528

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1649 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1549 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
40%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
56%
Strike defense
TBD
1.05
Takedown avg.
TBD
15%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
58%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.58
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Caio MagalhaesRobert Pukač
14501500155016002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
5 (25%)
4 (40%)
Submission
4 (20%)
3 (30%)
Decision
11 (55%)

Combat Edge model read

Robert Pukač62%
Caio Magalhaes 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Robert Pukač a 62% favorite over Caio Magalhaes in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Caio Magalhaes's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1545 vs 1544), separated by just 1 points.

Caio Magalhaes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Caio Magalhaes finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Robert Pukač 45%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.