Caio Magalhaes vs Trevor Smith
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-7-0Record15-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
73.00Reach41,5"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Teixeira MMA & Fitness· 1650 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamRing Demon Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Trevor Smith is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Caio Magalhaes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1581
If they lose-14→ 1549
If they win+14→ 1615
If they lose-18→ 1583
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1636 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Caio MagalhaesTrevor Smith
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Trevor Smith54%
Caio Magalhaes 46%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Trevor Smith a 54% favorite over Caio Magalhaes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Trevor Smith holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1601 to 1563, a 38-point edge.
Caio Magalhaes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Caio Magalhaes finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Trevor Smith 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.