Combat Edge Intelligence

Caio Magalhaes vs Trevor Smith

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Trevor Smith
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Trevor Smith

“Hot Sauce”

15-10-0MiddleweightUFC

1600Solid

Tale of the tape

10-7-0Record15-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
73.00Reach41,5"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Teixeira MMA & FitnessTeamRing Demon Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Trevor Smith is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Caio Magalhaes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Caio MagalhaesNow 1545
If they win+28→ 1573
If they lose-20→ 1525
Trevor SmithNow 1600
If they win+13→ 1613
If they lose-19→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1649 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
3.29
40%
Strike accuracy
56%
2.78
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.31
56%
Strike defense
51%
1.05
Takedown avg.
1.70
15%
Takedown accuracy
32%
58%
Takedown defense
61%
1.58
Submission avg.
0.72

Trajectory

Caio MagalhaesTrevor Smith
155016001650201720182019

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
1 (7%)
4 (40%)
Submission
9 (60%)
3 (30%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Trevor Smith54%
Caio Magalhaes 46%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Trevor Smith a 54% favorite over Caio Magalhaes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Trevor Smith holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1600 to 1545, a 55-point edge.

Caio Magalhaes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Caio Magalhaes finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Trevor Smith 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.