Combat Edge Intelligence

Cal Worsham vs Nicolaj Wagner

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-10-0Record5-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'10"Height6'2"
TBDReach-
230 lbsWeight249 lbs
Worsham Team XTeamTBD

What's at stake

Nicolaj Wagner is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Cal Worsham carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cal WorshamNow 1507
If they win+17→ 1524
If they lose-15→ 1492
Nicolaj WagnerNow 1532
If they win+22→ 1554
If they lose-26→ 1506

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Cal WorshamNicolaj Wagner
145015001550201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

12 (92%)
KO/TKO
5 (100%)
1 (8%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Nicolaj Wagner59%
Cal Worsham 41%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 59% favorite over Cal Worsham in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Nicolaj Wagner holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1532 to 1507, a 25-point edge.

Cal Worsham enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Cal Worsham finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Nicolaj Wagner 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.