Cal Worsham vs Roggers Souza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-10-0Record15-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'10"Height6'4"
TBDReach79"
230 lbsWeight265 lbs
Worsham Team XTeamAlcateia MMA
What's at stake
Roggers Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Cal Worsham carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1524
If they lose-15→ 1492
If they win+15→ 1545
If they lose-17→ 1513
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1540 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cal WorshamRoggers Souza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Roggers Souza62%
Cal Worsham 38%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Roggers Souza a 62% favorite over Cal Worsham in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Roggers Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1530 to 1507, a 23-point edge.
Cal Worsham enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Roggers Souza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Cal Worsham finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Roggers Souza 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.