Caleb Moctezuma vs Dustin Neace
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-10-0Record25-21-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'9"
67.7"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Legacy MMATeamDamage Incorporated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1527
If they lose-16→ 1495
If they win+12→ 1521
If they lose-12→ 1497
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1537 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1510 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Caleb MoctezumaDustin Neace
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Caleb Moctezuma58%
Dustin Neace 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Caleb Moctezuma a 58% favorite over Dustin Neace in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1511 vs 1509), separated by just 2 points.
Caleb Moctezuma enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Caleb Moctezuma finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Dustin Neace 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.