Callum Connor vs Cássio Barão
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-1-0Record10-2-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
73"Reach71"
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamDyogo Teles MMA
What's at stake
Callum Connor is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Cássio Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1663
If they lose-25→ 1615
If they win+17→ 1639
If they lose-15→ 1607
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1505 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1518 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Callum ConnorCássio Barão
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cássio Barão53%
Callum Connor 47%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Cássio Barão a 53% favorite over Callum Connor in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Callum Connor's way (47%).
Callum Connor holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1640 to 1622, a 18-point edge.
Callum Connor finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Cássio Barão 90%.
Callum Connor carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.