Callum Haughian vs Rafael Rios
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
2-1-0Record4-2-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
-ReachTBD
149 lbsWeight149 lbs
Great Britain Top TeamTeamTeam Stockton
What's at stake
Callum Haughian is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Rafael Rios carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1542
If they lose-25→ 1494
If they win+25→ 1525
If they lose-23→ 1477
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1487 · 3 fightsPre-fight EloTBD
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Callum Haughian54%
Rafael Rios 46%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Callum Haughian a 54% favorite over Rafael Rios in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Callum Haughian holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1519 to 1500, a 19-point edge.
Rafael Rios 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.