Combat Edge Intelligence

Callum Haughian vs Tom Aaron

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

2-1-0Record5-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
-ReachUnknown
149 lbsWeight155 lbs
Great Britain Top TeamTeamFinney's MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Callum HaughianNow 1519
If they win+23→ 1542
If they lose-25→ 1494
Tom AaronNow 1511
If they win+25→ 1536
If they lose-23→ 1488

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1487 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Callum HaughianTom Aaron
15001550200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
1 (50%)
Submission
3 (60%)
1 (50%)
Decision
1 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

Callum Haughian62%
Tom Aaron 38%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Callum Haughian a 62% favorite over Tom Aaron in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1519 vs 1511), separated by just 8 points.

Tom Aaron 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.