Cameron Church vs Damien Lapilus
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-1-0Record23-15-3
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
TBDReach79.5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Escobar Training GroundsTeamMMA Factory
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1590
If they lose-24→ 1542
If they win+12→ 1578
If they lose-12→ 1554
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1483 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1582 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cameron ChurchDamien Lapilus
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Damien Lapilus54%
Cameron Church 46%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Damien Lapilus a 54% favorite over Cameron Church in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Cameron Church's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1566 vs 1566), separated by just 0 points.
Cameron Church finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Damien Lapilus 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.