Combat Edge Intelligence

Cameron Smotherman vs Kai Asakura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record22-6-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
69"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
Metro Fight ClubTeamJapan Top Team

What's at stake

Kai Asakura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Cameron Smotherman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cameron SmothermanNow 1597
If they win+21→ 1618
If they lose-11→ 1586
Kai AsakuraNow 1712
If they win+8→ 1720
If they lose-16→ 1696

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1590 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.07
Sig. strikes / min
2.27
37%
Strike accuracy
33%
3.52
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.53
59%
Strike defense
52%
0
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
63%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Cameron SmothermanKai Asakura
1600165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (50%)
KO/TKO
14 (64%)
1 (8%)
Submission
3 (14%)
5 (42%)
Decision
5 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Kai Asakura64%
Cameron Smotherman 36%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Kai Asakura a 64% favorite over Cameron Smotherman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Kai Asakura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1712 to 1597, a 115-point edge.

Cameron Smotherman enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Cameron Smotherman finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Kai Asakura 77%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.