Caolán Loughran vs Julio Arce
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-4-0Record22-7-0
BantamweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'7"
68"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight147 lbs
What's at stake
Julio Arce is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Caolán Loughran carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1670
If they lose-13→ 1638
If they win+10→ 1725
If they lose-14→ 1701
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1651 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Caolán LoughranJulio Arce
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Julio Arce59%
Caolán Loughran 41%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Julio Arce a 59% favorite over Caolán Loughran in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Julio Arce holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1651, a 64-point edge.
Caolán Loughran finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Julio Arce 55%.
Julio Arce carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.