Combat Edge Intelligence

Caolán Loughran vs Thiago Tavares

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-0Record24-11-1
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'7"
68"Reach68,0"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team KaobonTeamTeam Tavares

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Caolán LoughranNow 1646
If they win+16→ 1662
If they lose-16→ 1630
Thiago TavaresNow 1647
If they win+12→ 1659
If they lose-12→ 1635

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1600 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1588 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.87
Sig. strikes / min
2
45%
Strike accuracy
40%
5.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.31
55%
Strike defense
63%
5
Takedown avg.
3.83
42%
Takedown accuracy
43%
0%
Takedown defense
63%
0
Submission avg.
1.46

Trajectory

Caolán LoughranThiago Tavares
165020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
4 (17%)
3 (27%)
Submission
15 (63%)
3 (27%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Caolán Loughran62%
Thiago Tavares 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Caolán Loughran a 62% favorite over Thiago Tavares in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Thiago Tavares's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1646 vs 1647), separated by just 1 points.

Caolán Loughran finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Tavares 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.