Cara Greenwell vs Jessica Penne
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record14-8-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'5"
69"Reach67"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Team Impact TulsaTeamAlliance MMA· 1633 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Jessica Penne is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Cara Greenwell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1552
If they lose-23→ 1504
If they win+15→ 1563
If they lose-17→ 1531
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1506 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cara GreenwellJessica Penne
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cara Greenwell67%
Jessica Penne 33%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Cara Greenwell a 67% favorite over Jessica Penne in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jessica Penne's way (47%).
Jessica Penne holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1548 to 1527, a 21-point edge.
Jessica Penne enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Cara Greenwell finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jessica Penne 71%.
Cara Greenwell carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.