Cara Greenwell vs Lisa Ellis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record15-11-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'4"
69"ReachTBD
115 lbsWeight110 lbs
Team Impact TulsaTeamUnited Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1551
If they lose-24→ 1503
If they win+12→ 1543
If they lose-12→ 1519
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1506 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cara GreenwellLisa Ellis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cara Greenwell70%
Lisa Ellis 30%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Cara Greenwell a 70% favorite over Lisa Ellis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lisa Ellis's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1527 vs 1531), separated by just 4 points.
Lisa Ellis enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Cara Greenwell finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Lisa Ellis 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.