Cara Greenwell vs Mathew Gesto
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-2-0Record3-1-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'3"
69"ReachTBD
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
What's at stake
Mathew Gesto is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Cara Greenwell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+26→ 1553
If they lose-22→ 1505
If they win+22→ 1577
If they lose-26→ 1529
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1506 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1491 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cara GreenwellMathew Gesto
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cara Greenwell56%
Mathew Gesto 44%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Cara Greenwell a 56% favorite over Mathew Gesto in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mathew Gesto's way (46%).
Mathew Gesto holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1555 to 1527, a 28-point edge.
Mathew Gesto enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Cara Greenwell finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mathew Gesto 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.