Carl Jones vs Jamie Varner
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-1-0Record21-11-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight5'8"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamArizona Combat Sports
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1628
If they lose-24→ 1580
If they win+12→ 1615
If they lose-12→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1508 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carl JonesJamie Varner
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carl Jones67%
Jamie Varner 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Carl Jones a 67% favorite over Jamie Varner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1604 vs 1603), separated by just 1 points.
Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Carl Jones finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Jamie Varner 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.