Carl Jones vs Mike Breeden
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-1-0Record11-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
TBDHeight5'10"
-Reach70"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamMarathon MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1628
If they lose-24→ 1580
If they win+16→ 1620
If they lose-16→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1508 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carl JonesMike Breeden
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carl Jones60%
Mike Breeden 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Carl Jones a 60% favorite over Mike Breeden in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1604 vs 1604), separated by just 0 points.
Carl Jones finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Mike Breeden 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.