Carl Jones vs Wilson Varela
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-1-0Record14-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight6'0"
-Reach75.6"
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamMarseille Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1628
If they lose-24→ 1580
If they win+16→ 1621
If they lose-16→ 1589
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1507 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1584 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Carl JonesWilson Varela
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Wilson Varela56%
Carl Jones 44%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Wilson Varela a 56% favorite over Carl Jones in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1604 vs 1605), separated by just 1 points.
Carl Jones finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Varela 85%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.