Combat Edge Intelligence

Carl Seumanutafa vs Ryo Sakai

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Ryo Sakai
jp

Ryo Sakai

“Raging Bull”

15-16-0HeavyweightRFF

1491Average

Tale of the tape

14-16-0Record15-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
261 lbsWeight246 lbs
Skrap PackTeamRanger Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carl SeumanutafaNow 1485
If they win+12→ 1497
If they lose-12→ 1473
Ryo SakaiNow 1491
If they win+12→ 1503
If they lose-12→ 1479

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1535 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Carl SeumanutafaRyo Sakai
1500155020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (79%)
KO/TKO
10 (67%)
1 (7%)
Submission
0 (0%)
2 (14%)
Decision
5 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Ryo Sakai72%
Carl Seumanutafa 28%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 72% favorite over Carl Seumanutafa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1485 vs 1491), separated by just 6 points.

Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Carl Seumanutafa finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Sakai 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.