Combat Edge Intelligence

Carla Esparza vs Carli Judice

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-8-0Record7-2-0
StrawweightDivisionFlyweight
5'1"Height5'7"
63"Reach68"
115 lbsWeight125 lbs
Team Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamHeadkicks MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carla EsparzaNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Carli JudiceNow 1654
If they win+24→ 1678
If they lose-24→ 1630

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.19
Sig. strikes / min
9.32
39%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.87
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.62
54%
Strike defense
57%
3.28
Takedown avg.
0.52
36%
Takedown accuracy
25%
47%
Takedown defense
81%
0.27
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Carla EsparzaCarli Judice
15501600165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (21%)
KO/TKO
6 (86%)
4 (21%)
Submission
0 (0%)
11 (58%)
Decision
1 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Carli Judice84%
Carla Esparza 16%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Carli Judice a 84% favorite over Carla Esparza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Carla Esparza's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1654), separated by just 3 points.

Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Carli Judice enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Carli Judice 86%.

Carli Judice carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.