Carla Esparza vs Juliana Lima
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record10-7-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'1"Height5'5"
63"Reach65.50
115 lbsWeight116 lbs
Team OyamaTeamGracie Barra BH
What's at stake
Carla Esparza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Juliana Lima carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1667
If they lose-22→ 1635
If they win+22→ 1546
If they lose-10→ 1514
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1595 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carla EsparzaJuliana Lima
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carla Esparza66%
Juliana Lima 34%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Carla Esparza a 66% favorite over Juliana Lima in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Carla Esparza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1657 to 1524, a 133-point edge.
Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Juliana Lima 20%.
Carla Esparza and Juliana Lima share 1 common opponent: Tecia Pennington.
Juliana Lima carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.