Carla Esparza vs Ketlen Souza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record17-6-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'1"Height5'2"
63"Reach63"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Team OyamaTeamCarioca Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
If they win+16→ 1663
If they lose-16→ 1631
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1599 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carla EsparzaKetlen Souza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ketlen Souza66%
Carla Esparza 34%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Ketlen Souza a 66% favorite over Carla Esparza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Carla Esparza's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1647), separated by just 10 points.
Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ketlen Souza enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Ketlen Souza 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.