Carla Esparza vs Marina Rodriguez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record17-6-2
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'1"Height5'7"
63"Reach65"
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Team OyamaTeamThai Brasil
What's at stake
Marina Rodriguez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Carla Esparza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1674
If they lose-15→ 1642
If they win+15→ 1690
If they lose-17→ 1658
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1681 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carla EsparzaMarina Rodriguez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Carla Esparza and Marina Rodriguez within a point of even.
Marina Rodriguez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1675 to 1657, a 18-point edge.
Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Marina Rodriguez 47%.
Carla Esparza and Marina Rodriguez share 3 common opponents: Xiaonan Yan, Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Virna Jandiroba.
Marina Rodriguez carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.