Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record18-13-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'1"Height5'3"
63"ReachTBD
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Team OyamaTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Carla Esparza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Michelle Waterson-Gomez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1670
If they lose-19→ 1638
If they win+15→ 1597
If they lose-9→ 1573
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1692 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carla EsparzaMichelle Waterson-Gomez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carla Esparza70%
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 30%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Carla Esparza a 70% favorite over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Carla Esparza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1657 to 1582, a 75-point edge.
Carla Esparza enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Carla Esparza finishes 42% of wins inside the distance, Michelle Waterson-Gomez 67%.
Carla Esparza and Michelle Waterson-Gomez share 1 common opponent: Marina Rodriguez.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.