Combat Edge Intelligence

Carli Judice vs Julia Polastri

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-2-0Record14-6-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'7"Height5'2"
68"Reach63"
125 lbsWeight115 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamCWB Fighter

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carli JudiceNow 1654
If they win+24→ 1678
If they lose-24→ 1630
Julia PolastriNow 1648
If they win+16→ 1664
If they lose-16→ 1632

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1557 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

9.32
Sig. strikes / min
6.22
51%
Strike accuracy
57%
6.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.18
57%
Strike defense
59%
0.52
Takedown avg.
0.62
25%
Takedown accuracy
60%
81%
Takedown defense
58%
0
Submission avg.
0.31

Trajectory

Carli JudiceJulia Polastri
155016001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (86%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (21%)
1 (14%)
Decision
6 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Carli Judice73%
Julia Polastri 27%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Carli Judice a 73% favorite over Julia Polastri in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1654 vs 1648), separated by just 6 points.

Carli Judice enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Carli Judice finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Julia Polastri 57%.

Carli Judice carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.