Carli Judice vs Nicolle Caliari
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-2-0Record9-4-0
FlyweightDivisionStrawweight
5'7"Height5'3"
68"Reach 62"
125 lbsWeight116 lbs
Headkicks MMATeamThai Brasil
What's at stake
Carli Judice is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +22 while a loss costs more — Nicolle Caliari carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1645
If they lose-26→ 1597
If they win+17→ 1611
If they lose-15→ 1579
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carli JudiceNicolle Caliari
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carli Judice56%
Nicolle Caliari 44%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Carli Judice a 56% favorite over Nicolle Caliari in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Carli Judice holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1623 to 1594, a 29-point edge.
Carli Judice enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Carli Judice finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Nicolle Caliari 100%.
Carli Judice and Nicolle Caliari share 1 common opponent: Ernesta Kareckaite.
Carli Judice carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.