Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlo Pedersoli vs Yusaku Kinoshita

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record6-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
40.00Reach71,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Aurora MMA· 1580 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamPancrase Inagakigumi

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlo PedersoliNow 1517
If they win+24→ 1541
If they lose-24→ 1493
Yusaku KinoshitaNow 1523
If they win+16→ 1539
If they lose-16→ 1507

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1669 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1548 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.17
Sig. strikes / min
4.65
38%
Strike accuracy
50%
4.12
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.12
61%
Strike defense
52%
2.91
Takedown avg.
0
44%
Takedown accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Carlo PedersoliYusaku Kinoshita
1500155020192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (36%)
KO/TKO
4 (67%)
5 (36%)
Submission
2 (33%)
4 (29%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Yusaku Kinoshita60%
Carlo Pedersoli 40%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Yusaku Kinoshita a 60% favorite over Carlo Pedersoli in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1517 vs 1523), separated by just 6 points.

Yusaku Kinoshita enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Carlo Pedersoli finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Yusaku Kinoshita 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.