Carlos Calderon vs Josef Štummer
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Calderon57%
Josef Štummer 43%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Calderon a 57% favorite over Josef Štummer in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Josef Štummer's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1613), separated by just 1 points.
Josef Štummer enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Carlos Calderon finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Josef Štummer 38%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record8-2-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
71"Reach-
145 lbsWeight148 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1507 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Carlos CalderonJosef Štummer