Carlos Calderon vs Ryan Cafaro
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Calderon58%
Ryan Cafaro 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Calderon a 58% favorite over Ryan Cafaro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1612 vs 1612), separated by just 0 points.
Carlos Calderon finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Cafaro 80%.
Carlos Calderon carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record15-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'7"
71"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
If they win+16→ 1628
If they lose-16→ 1596
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Carlos CalderonRyan Cafaro