Carlos Condit vs Dan Hardy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-14-0Record25-10-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
75"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamTeam Rough House
What's at stake
Carlos Condit is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Dan Hardy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1740
If they lose-14→ 1716
If they win+14→ 1698
If they lose-10→ 1674
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1661 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos ConditDan Hardy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Condit67%
Dan Hardy 33%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Condit a 67% favorite over Dan Hardy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Carlos Condit holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1684, a 46-point edge.
Dan Hardy enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Carlos Condit finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Dan Hardy 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.