Carlos Condit vs Demian Maia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-14-0Record28-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
75"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamDemian Maia Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Carlos Condit carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1744
If they lose-10→ 1720
If they win+10→ 1784
If they lose-14→ 1760
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1768 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos ConditDemian Maia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Condit57%
Demian Maia 43%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Condit a 57% favorite over Demian Maia in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Demian Maia's way (44%).
Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1730, a 44-point edge.
Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carlos Condit finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Demian Maia 61%.
Carlos Condit and Demian Maia share 1 common opponent: Tyron Woodley.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.