Carlos Condit vs Michael Chiesa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-14-0Record20-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'1"
75"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamSikjitsu
What's at stake
Michael Chiesa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Carlos Condit carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1743
If they lose-11→ 1719
If they win+11→ 1769
If they lose-13→ 1745
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos ConditMichael Chiesa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Chiesa72%
Carlos Condit 28%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chiesa a 72% favorite over Carlos Condit in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Michael Chiesa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1758 to 1730, a 28-point edge.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Carlos Condit finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chiesa 65%.
Carlos Condit and Michael Chiesa share 3 common opponents: Max Griffin, Court McGee and Neil Magny.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.