Carlos Condit vs Nick Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-14-0Record26-10-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'1"
75"Reach76"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Nick Diaz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Carlos Condit carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1743
If they lose-11→ 1719
If they win+11→ 1770
If they lose-13→ 1746
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos ConditNick Diaz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Condit51%
Nick Diaz 49%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Condit a 51% favorite over Nick Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nick Diaz's way (46%).
Nick Diaz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1759 to 1730, a 29-point edge.
Nick Diaz enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Carlos Condit finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Nick Diaz 81%.
Carlos Condit and Nick Diaz share 1 common opponent: Robbie Lawler.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.