Carlos Condit vs Rory MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
32-14-0Record23-10-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
75"Reach76.00
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Jackson-Wink MMATeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1742
If they lose-12→ 1718
If they win+12→ 1753
If they lose-12→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1699 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1740 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos ConditRory MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rory MacDonald62%
Carlos Condit 38%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Rory MacDonald a 62% favorite over Carlos Condit in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1730 vs 1741), separated by just 11 points.
Rory MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carlos Condit finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Rory MacDonald 70%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.