Carlos Eduardo Rocha vs Ebrahem Mahmoud
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-4-0Record0-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReach75''
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamDiesel Fighting Academy
What's at stake
Ebrahem Mahmoud is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Carlos Eduardo Rocha carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1432
If they lose-10→ 1408
If they win+20→ 1491
If they lose-28→ 1443
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1500 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos Eduardo RochaEbrahem Mahmoud
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ebrahem Mahmoud79%
Carlos Eduardo Rocha 21%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Ebrahem Mahmoud a 79% favorite over Carlos Eduardo Rocha in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Ebrahem Mahmoud holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1418, a 53-point edge.
Carlos Eduardo Rocha enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Carlos Eduardo Rocha finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.