Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlos Eduardo Rocha vs Jake Ellenberger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record31-15-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
TBDReach39,5"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Kickboxing AcademyTeamReign MMA

What's at stake

Jake Ellenberger is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Carlos Eduardo Rocha carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Carlos Eduardo RochaNow 1418
If they win+19→ 1437
If they lose-5→ 1413
Jake EllenbergerNow 1665
If they win+5→ 1670
If they lose-19→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1607 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1691 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.24
Sig. strikes / min
2.47
34%
Strike accuracy
39%
1.85
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.83
56%
Strike defense
61%
0
Takedown avg.
2.04
0%
Takedown accuracy
48%
53%
Takedown defense
86%
1.39
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Carlos Eduardo RochaJake Ellenberger
140015001600170020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (11%)
KO/TKO
21 (68%)
8 (89%)
Submission
4 (13%)
0 (0%)
Decision
6 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Jake Ellenberger79%
Carlos Eduardo Rocha 21%Elo baseline: 81%

The Combat Edge model makes Jake Ellenberger a 79% favorite over Carlos Eduardo Rocha in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (81%).

Jake Ellenberger holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1665 to 1418, a 247-point edge.

Carlos Eduardo Rocha enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Carlos Eduardo Rocha finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jake Ellenberger 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.