Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlos Hernandez vs Clayton Carpenter

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

10-5-0Record8-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'5"
67"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
VFS AcademyTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlos HernandezNow 1627
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611
Clayton CarpenterNow 1627
If they win+16→ 1643
If they lose-16→ 1611

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.90
Sig. strikes / min
3.66
46%
Strike accuracy
54%
3.43
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.57
51%
Strike defense
56%
1.60
Takedown avg.
1.99
21%
Takedown accuracy
46%
68%
Takedown defense
38%
0.18
Submission avg.
1.33

Trajectory

Carlos HernandezClayton Carpenter
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
2 (25%)
4 (40%)
Submission
4 (50%)
6 (60%)
Decision
2 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Carlos Hernandez and Clayton Carpenter within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1627 vs 1627), separated by just 0 points.

Clayton Carpenter enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Carlos Hernandez finishes 40% of wins inside the distance, Clayton Carpenter 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.