Carlos Leal vs Rafael dos Anjos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-7-0Record32-17-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
74"Reach70"
169 lbsWeight155 lbs
Thai BrasilTeamRDA Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1726
If they lose-12→ 1702
If they win+12→ 1725
If they lose-12→ 1701
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1631 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos LealRafael dos Anjos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Leal73%
Rafael dos Anjos 27%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Leal a 73% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1714 vs 1713), separated by just 1 points.
Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Carlos Leal finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.
Carlos Leal carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.