Carlos Leal vs Rinat Fakhretdinov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-7-0Record24-1-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"Reach74"
169 lbsWeight171 lbs
Thai BrasilTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Rinat Fakhretdinov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Carlos Leal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1729
If they lose-9→ 1705
If they win+12→ 1823
If they lose-20→ 1791
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1631 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos LealRinat Fakhretdinov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rinat Fakhretdinov70%
Carlos Leal 30%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Rinat Fakhretdinov a 70% favorite over Carlos Leal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Rinat Fakhretdinov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1811 to 1714, a 97-point edge.
Rinat Fakhretdinov enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Carlos Leal finishes 62% of wins inside the distance, Rinat Fakhretdinov 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.