Carlos Mota vs Cody Durden
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Cody Durden69%
Carlos Mota 31%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Cody Durden a 69% favorite over Carlos Mota in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Cody Durden holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1637 to 1604, a 33-point edge.
Carlos Mota enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carlos Mota finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Cody Durden 63%.
Carlos Mota carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record19-11-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'7"
69"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Pr1meira FightTeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta
What's at stake
Cody Durden is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Carlos Mota carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1622
If they lose-14→ 1590
If they win+11→ 1648
If they lose-13→ 1624
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1556 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Carlos MotaCody Durden