Carlos Newton vs Matt Hughes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-0Record45-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach73"
174 lbsWeight170 lbs
Warrior MMA Fight TeamTeamHIT Squad
What's at stake
Matt Hughes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Carlos Newton carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1604
If they lose-5→ 1580
If they win+5→ 1812
If they lose-19→ 1788
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1581 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1642 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos NewtonMatt Hughes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Hughes67%
Carlos Newton 33%Elo baseline: 78%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Hughes a 67% favorite over Carlos Newton in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (78%).
Matt Hughes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1807 to 1585, a 222-point edge.
Matt Hughes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carlos Newton finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Matt Hughes 78%.
Carlos Newton and Matt Hughes share 1 common opponent: Renzo Gracie.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.