Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlos Newton vs Renato Verissimo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-14-0Record7-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
174 lbsWeight170 lbs
Warrior MMA Fight TeamTeamBJ Penn's MMA

What's at stake

Carlos Newton is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Renato Verissimo carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Carlos NewtonNow 1585
If they win+10→ 1595
If they lose-14→ 1571
Renato VerissimoNow 1541
If they win+18→ 1559
If they lose-14→ 1527

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1581 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1606 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.65
Sig. strikes / min
0.92
41%
Strike accuracy
49%
1.55
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.87
45%
Strike defense
48%
2.47
Takedown avg.
1.46
71%
Takedown accuracy
31%
44%
Takedown defense
50%
0.90
Submission avg.
2.55

Trajectory

Carlos NewtonRenato Verissimo
150015501600200520062007200820092010

Win method breakdown

2 (13%)
KO/TKO
6 (86%)
10 (63%)
Submission
0 (0%)
4 (25%)
Decision
1 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Carlos Newton56%
Renato Verissimo 44%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Newton a 56% favorite over Renato Verissimo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Carlos Newton holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1585 to 1541, a 44-point edge.

Carlos Newton finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Renato Verissimo 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.