Carlos Newton vs Ryan Gerena
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-14-0Record4-1-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
TBDReach-
174 lbsWeight171 lbs
Warrior MMA Fight TeamTeamVamos BJJ
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1597
If they lose-12→ 1573
If they win+24→ 1608
If they lose-24→ 1560
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1581 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1509 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos NewtonRyan Gerena
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Gerena62%
Carlos Newton 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Gerena a 62% favorite over Carlos Newton in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Carlos Newton's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1585 vs 1584), separated by just 1 points.
Ryan Gerena enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Carlos Newton finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Gerena 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.