Carlos Prates vs Geoff Neal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-7-0Record16-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
78″Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Vale Top TeamTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Carlos Prates is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Geoff Neal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1793
If they lose-15→ 1769
If they win+20→ 1712
If they lose-12→ 1680
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos PratesGeoff Neal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Prates83%
Geoff Neal 17%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Prates a 83% favorite over Geoff Neal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Carlos Prates holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1784 to 1692, a 92-point edge.
Carlos Prates enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Geoff Neal enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carlos Prates finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Geoff Neal 75%.
Carlos Prates and Geoff Neal share 2 common opponents: Ian Machado Garry and Neil Magny.
Carlos Prates carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.