Carlos Prates vs Ian Machado Garry
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-7-0Record17-2-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'3"
78″Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Vale Top TeamTeamChute Boxe Diego Lima
What's at stake
Ian Machado Garry is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Carlos Prates carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1798
If they lose-11→ 1774
If they win+15→ 1830
If they lose-17→ 1798
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1775 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos PratesIan Machado Garry
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Carlos Prates and Ian Machado Garry within a point of even.
Ian Machado Garry holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1815 to 1785, a 30-point edge.
Carlos Prates enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Carlos Prates finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Ian Machado Garry 47%.
Carlos Prates and Ian Machado Garry share 2 common opponents: Geoff Neal and Neil Magny.
Carlos Prates carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.